Linking agricultural investments to growth and poverty: An economywide approach applied to Mozambique

Rui Benfica, Benedito Cunguara and James Thurlow

Agricultural Systems, 2019, vol. 172, issue C, 91-100

Abstract: National agricultural investment plans in developing countries are expected to be evidence-based, reflect broad development processes, and measure contributions to high-level outcomes, such as economic growth and poverty reduction. We propose an economywide systems-approach that combines ex post household econometric analysis (using propensity score matching) of investment impacts with ex ante modeling of growth and poverty linkages (using a spatially-disaggregated dynamic computable general equilibrium model). We apply this approach retrospectively to Mozambique. Simulation results indicate that the country's investment plan from 2012 to 2017 would not achieve national growth targets, despite doubling public spending on agriculture. Rather than increasing spending, the government should have reallocated resources towards agricultural research and extension, instead of irrigation and fertilizer subsidies. Providing extension services to smallholders is most effective at raising growth and reducing poverty in all regions of the country. Investing in irrigation was more likely benefit growth in the country's southern region due to less favorable agroecological conditions. These conclusions are robust across assumptions about investment efficiency. As demonstrated in Mozambique, our approach provides a consistent framework for evaluating ex ante sector-wide agricultural investment plans based on growth, poverty and regional equity considerations. Our approach complements household-level evaluations by enhancing their relevance for national planning.

Keywords: Agriculture; Investment; Growth; Poverty; Impact evaluation; CGE model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X17304973
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agisys:v:172:y:2019:i:c:p:91-100

DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2018.01.029

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Systems is currently edited by J.W. Hansen, P.K. Thornton and P.B.M. Berentsen

More articles in Agricultural Systems from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().