Impacts of multi-timescale SPEI and SMDI variations on winter wheat yields

Xinguo Chen, Yi Li, Ning Yao, De Li Liu, Tehseen Javed, Chuncheng Liu and Fenggui Liu

Agricultural Systems, 2020, vol. 185, issue C

Abstract: Drought is one of the main factors that impacts crop yields. However, determining how different drought types affect winter wheat yields is difficult due to the lack of observation data. This work aimed to investigate the impacts of multi-timescale droughts on winter wheat yields. The winter wheat yields during 1981–2015 were simulated by the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model. We analyzed the drought characteristics based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and soil moisture deficit index (SMDI) at timescales of 1 to 9 months at 108 sites in China. The modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) method was used to test the tendency of 1-, 3- and 6-month SPEI, SMDI and winter wheat yields. Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the relationship between winter wheat yields and SPEI/SMDI at different timescales. The results showed that, DSSAT-CERES-Wheat generally performed well in simulating winter wheat anthesis date, maturity date and yields (0.64 < R2 < 0.97, where R2 is determination of coefficient). The dry or wet status for the 1- to 9-month timescales of SPEI and SMDI were generally consistent in the three subregions. Seasonal drought occurred more frequently in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain than in the other two subregions. The 4-month SPEI and 1-month SMDI at the 0–10 cm depth affected the winter wheat yield more during the jointing to milk stages. For yields vs. 4-month SPEI, the number of stations with Pearson correlation coefficient r > 0.4 in March, April and May was 29, 35 and 23, respectively. For yields vs. 1-month SMDI, the number of stations with r > 0.4 in March, April and May was 16, 23 and 33, respectively. SMDI and SPEI explained more than 14% and less than 2% of the yield variability, respectively. Closer relations between SMDI and winter wheat yields were observed. This study provides useful references for preventing agricultural drought.

Keywords: Multi-timescale droughts; DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model; Winter wheat yields; Key growth period of winter wheat; Pearson correlation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X20308167
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agisys:v:185:y:2020:i:c:s0308521x20308167

DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102955

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Systems is currently edited by J.W. Hansen, P.K. Thornton and P.B.M. Berentsen

More articles in Agricultural Systems from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().