Drought frequency change: An assessment in northern India plains

Yan Ge, Ximing Cai, Tingju Zhu () and Claudia Ringler

Agricultural Water Management, 2016, vol. 176, issue C, 111-121

Abstract: Following the debate on whether drought has become more severe under climate change, this paper assesses drought frequency in northern and eastern India using two datasets of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (generated by Dai, 2013 and Sheffield et al., 2012). The univariate return period for three drought characteristics (duration, severity and peak intensity) is examined regarding whether drought has occurred with longer duration, higher severity and/or larger peak intensity. The spatial variation of those changes is analyzed through eight areas in the study region. The temporal and spatial comparisons based on the univariate return period show different change patterns of duration, severity and peak intensity in different areas. Generally, in the areas which plant wheat more than rice (areas 1 and 2), drought has been alleviated in duration and intensity after 1955; while in the areas which plant more rice than wheat (areas 3–8), drought have been aggravated in duration, severity and intensity (except for area 8, a coastal area). This spatial change pattern may imply potential crop pattern change, for example, switching from rice to wheat in areas 3–7. Furthermore, the bivariate return period for pairs of drought characteristics based on the copulas and considering correlation between the drought characteristics is examined to understand how bivariate return periods change over time and space. Finally, it is also found that one data set (Sheffield et al.) results in more severe, longer and more intense drought in most of the areas, especially for the drought events with long-return-periods than the other (Dai).

Keywords: Return period; PDSI; Copulas; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377416301779
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:176:y:2016:i:c:p:111-121

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2016.05.015

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Water Management is currently edited by B.E. Clothier, W. Dierickx, J. Oster and D. Wichelns

More articles in Agricultural Water Management from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().