Winter wheat production on the Guanzhong Plain of Northwest China under projected future climate with SimCLIM

Zhen Zheng, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Huanjie Cai and Zikai Wang

Agricultural Water Management, 2020, vol. 239, issue C

Abstract: The Guanzhong Plain in China is particularly sensitive to climate change owing to its fragile ecological environment and geographic features. As a result, climate change is affecting the production of winter wheat in this area. In this study, we used SimCLIM (climate model) with the CSM-CERES-Wheat model to determine the impact of the climate change on the projected agricultural production of winter wheat in the Guanzhong Plain for 2020, 2040, 2060, 2080 and 2100 projections. Scenarios for three global climate models (GCMs) (BCC-CSM-1, CSIRO-MK3−6-0 and GFDL-CM3) and one greenhouse gas concentration pathway (RCP 4.5) were chosen. The results showed a warming trend in the Guanzhong Plain for both maximum and minimum temperature for the different GCMs. Although rainfall varied, the projected rainfall showed an increasing trend for February, June and December, and a decreasing trend for April, September and October. The solar radiation for the Baoji and Weinan area showed an upward trend, while the solar radiation in Wugong was greatly reduced. The maturity date of winter wheat for the three locations was reduced by 2.3–14.9 days compared with the reference year for different climate change scenarios. Water requirements of the winter wheat for the three locations under different GCMs were all increased compared with the reference year. Overall, winter wheat yield in Wugong and Weinan increased for the different GCMs scenarios during the 21st century.

Keywords: Winter wheat; Climate change; Yield; CSM-CERES-wheat model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377419316257
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:239:y:2020:i:c:s0378377419316257

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106233

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Water Management is currently edited by B.E. Clothier, W. Dierickx, J. Oster and D. Wichelns

More articles in Agricultural Water Management from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().