Irrigation water resources optimization with consideration of the regional agro-hydrological process of crop growth and multiple uncertainties

Youzhi Wang and Ping Guo

Agricultural Water Management, 2021, vol. 245, issue C

Abstract: The spatial heterogeneity of yield caused by the interactions between soil types, and crop types, the nonlinear relationship between yield and irrigation, and risks and uncertainties in the process of decision making make water allocation become a challenging task. To address the above problems, this paper proposed a framework that couples the distributed AquaCrop simulation model with a risk-based probabilistic-possibilistic programming with fuzzy random coefficients optimization model. Compared with the conventional optimization models, it can make the optimal water allocation schemes based on the actual crop growth process, at the same time with considerations of multiple uncertainties expressed as fuzzy random variables and stochastic variables, and the water-shortage risk expressed as the water uniform-scarcity index (WUSI). Besides, it can address the relationship between the objective function with fuzzy random coefficient and fuzzy goals set by decision-makers through the permissible levels. Moreover, three risk scenarios with three water availability-violated probabilities, three allowable water-shortage risk levels, and three predefined objective-probability levels of water allocation, yield, and permissible level are examined, and influenced degrees of above risk parameters on system’s outputs are explored by the sensitivity analysis method. The developed model is used to a case study of irrigation water resources management in the Yingke district (YID), Heihe River Basin, China. The results show that the optimal water allocation schemes and permissible level have different responses on risk parameters and the developed model can tradeoff the relationships amid water allocation, water-shortage risk, yield, and permissible levels. It can help managers to identify desired decision alternatives in water allocation schemes among different crops in different soil types and different risk levels.

Keywords: Irrigation water resources management; Water uniform-scarcity index; Probabilistic-possibilistic programming; Fuzzy random coefficient; Sensitivity; Uncertainties (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:245:y:2021:i:c:s0378377420321776

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106630

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