Managing climate risks in a nutrient-deficient paddy rice field using seasonal climate forecasts and AquaCrop

Daeha Kim, Jong Ahn Chun and Thavone Inthavong

Agricultural Water Management, 2021, vol. 256, issue C

Abstract: A process-based crop model equipped with seasonal climate forecasts has been typically used to expect crop yields before or in the middle of the growing period. In this work, to consider the farmers’ risk-aversion behavior, we slightly shifted the typical focus to the risk associated with a crucial farming decision in a rainfed paddy rice field, the transplanting timing. Using a simple crop model and a semi-parametric weather generator, we tested hypothetical and real sets of climate forecasts for the rice field under nutrient deficiency in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). Results showed that the first climatic risk in the study field was an occational dry conditions, and the traditional timing of transplanting seemed to minimize the worst effect of potential dry conditions. It was found that the transplanting timing needs to be 5–10 days earlier than the farming tradition when fertility stress delays foliage development. The tests with hypothetical climate forecasts suggest that duration of a potential dry condition needs to be reliably forecasted to manage the climatic risk by adjusting the transplanting timing. The yield simulations for the 2015 El-Niño event also implcate that adjusting the transplanting timing could effectively reduce the potential impact of dry climate at a cost of slightly reduced yield expectation. This study exemplifies how to explicitly assess the climatic risk associated with the farming decision using ready-to-use climate data and a simple crop model.

Keywords: Risk minimization; Stochastic downscaling; Crop response to water and fertility stresses; Transplanting timing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377421003383
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:256:y:2021:i:c:s0378377421003383

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107073

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Water Management is currently edited by B.E. Clothier, W. Dierickx, J. Oster and D. Wichelns

More articles in Agricultural Water Management from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().