Evolution of agricultural development and land-water-food nexus in Central Asia

Shumin Han, Ping Xin, Huilong Li and Yonghui Yang

Agricultural Water Management, 2022, vol. 273, issue C

Abstract: Agricultural water use in heavily irrigated regions can reduce surface water flow. The most remarkable hydrological change in recent times in Central Asia is the rapid dry-up of the Aral Sea. In this paper, the evolution of agricultural development was traced back to the 1910s, Land-Water-Food (LWF) nexus in Central Asia was evaluated, and the relationship between agricultural development and Aral Sea dry-up was built. It was noted that for the 1910–2010s, the harvested land area in the region expanded nearly two folds — from 7.2 to 21.6 million ha. Production of cereal crops increased over eight folds — from 4.0 to 37.6 million tonnes. Cotton production reached 5.5 million tonnes, a seven-fold increase. The high increase in productivity was driven by increasing agricultural irrigation since the 1950s. Irrigation water requirement for the five main crops (wheat, cotton, maize, barley and rice) increased by about 50%; from 64.3 km3 in the 1950s to 95.9 km3 in the 2010s. Cotton and wheat were the top two crops, with respective total irrigation water use of 66.9% and 16.4%. For the study area, LWF nexus was quantified in terms of production efficiency using the data envelopment analysis method, and it was shown that excess water and land resources made agricultural production inefficient. Analysis of the irrigated area and the Aral Sea water surface area suggested that for every 1.0 km2 increase in irrigated land area, water surface area in the Aral Sea declined by 1.2 km2. The analysis of LWF tradeoff was key not only for sustainable land, water and ecological management, but also for food production in degraded arid lands around the globe.

Keywords: Land-Water-Food nexus; Crop water requirement; Sankey diagram; Data envelopment analysis; Production efficiency; Aral Sea (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:273:y:2022:i:c:s0378377422004218

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107874

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