Quantitative sensitivity of crop productivity and water productivity to precipitation during growth periods in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of Shanxi Province, China, based on APSIM

Xuan Yang, Pengfei Jia, Qingqing Hou and Min Zhu

Agricultural Water Management, 2023, vol. 283, issue C

Abstract: Cropping systems in the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone (APE) of Shanxi Province will face uncertainty over sustainability. For dealing with climate risks and providing information regarding adoption of climate-resistant cropping systems, this study aimed to i) calibrate and validate APSIM for predicting production of maize (Zea mays), potato (Solanum tuberosum), forage oats (Avena sativa) and feed soybean (Glycine max); ii) estimate sensitivity of yield and water productivity (WP) in response to different precipitation conditions associated with typical seasons; iii) evaluate changes of food yield caused by given treatments with typical stages. Results showed that: i) APSIM calibration and validation had generally satisfactory results with 4.09–29.98 % of NMRSE values; ii) due to less water retention, maize-based systems showed lower yield and WP than others. By linear regressions, maize yield showed high sensitivity with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) of stage 1 (May) and 2 (June and July; R2 = 0.0002–0.5176, a ≥ 315.94) in drought season, while markedly effects of precipitation on WP were presented in stage 1 and 2 for drought and wet season, respectively; iii) the key for moisture demand determining high potato and forage productivity is from emergency to floral initiation, therefore yield and WP showed positive relevance with SPI in stage 2 in most cases (R2 = 0.0203–0.8391, with absolute “a” values of 460.29–2746.7 and 0.9687–3.8206 for yield and WP, respectively); iv) food yields under various systems were non-significantly lower or higher than the most widely used rotation (maize-potato), but these changes expanded when crops undergoing typical drought in stage 2 by reductions of 3.0–42.5 %. Altogether, traditional potato-maize rotation and continuous maize should be avoided for mitigating negative effects of drought in stage 1 or 2, while supplementary irrigation in June, July and August is warranted for producing acceptable food and forage yield.

Keywords: Northern Agro-Pastoral Ecotone; Crop yield; Water productivity; Standardized Precipitation Index; Generated climate scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:283:y:2023:i:c:s0378377423001749

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108309

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