Understanding climate variability and its impact on drought occurrences in maize producing regions: Evidence from north of China

Sana Zeeshan Shirazi, Buchun Liu, Yuan Liu, Rui Han, Yongchang Zhu, Oumeng Qiao, Honglei Che, Yiming Zhang and Xurong Mei

Agricultural Water Management, 2024, vol. 306, issue C

Abstract: Global warming is projected to increase future droughts that will have a significant impact on maize cultivation in China. Therefore, we studied the changing climate patters and its impact during the maize growth period (MGP) using the downscaled outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) for the future period in three timelines (2020–2039; 2040–2069; and 2070–2099) relative to the baseline period (1981–2014). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated on monthly, 3-monthly, and 6-monthly timescales to monitor the short and long-term future drought conditions during the MGP in the north of China. Our results show an increase of mean temperature by 0.63–1.90 °C, 0.85–2.13 °C, and 1.21–2.42 °C under SSP245 and 1.42–2.76 °C, 1.84–3.07 °C, and 2.01–3.57 °C under SSP585 in 2030 s, 2060 s, and 2090 s across the region during MGP. The precipitation during MGP is projected to increase from 22.71–97.14 mm and 29.92–98.40 mm from 2030 s to 2090 s under SSP245 and SSP585, respectively, relative to the base period. Our results also indicate regional variations in drought occurrences, with Northwestern Arid Region (NWAR), Inner Mongolia Region (IMR), and Northeast China (NEC) experiencing differing degrees of drought intensity. The duration of mild droughts is projected to increase by 5.6 %–8.5 % (SSP245) and 5.7 %–9.2 % (SSP585) and moderate droughts are expected to rise by 3.8 %–8.8 % (SSP245) and 4.2 %–9.9 % (SSP585). In the NWAR, mild droughts are projected to increase by 24.3 %–30.5 % (SSP245) and 27.2 %–33.3 % (SSP585) and moderate droughts increasing by 13.1 %–25.6 % (SSP245) and 18.9 %–31.5 % (SSP585) from the 2030 s to the 2090 s, respectively. Future projections also suggest a significant increase in the severity of mild, moderate, and severe droughts across the study area, with northwestern regions exhibiting the highest increase. The results of this study provide region specific valuable insights for efficient utilization of water resources, adaptive irrigation strategies, and need for drought-resistant crop varieties in the north of China.

Keywords: Droughts; SPEI; CMIP6; Maize; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424004864
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:306:y:2024:i:c:s0378377424004864

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2024.109150

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Water Management is currently edited by B.E. Clothier, W. Dierickx, J. Oster and D. Wichelns

More articles in Agricultural Water Management from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().