Optimizing wheat yield and water productivity under water scarcity: A modeling approach for irrigation and cultivar selection across different agro-climatic zones of Egypt

Maha L. Elsayed, Ahmed F. Elkot, Tahany Noreldin, Benjamin Richard, Aiming Qi, Yasser M. Shabana, Samir M. Saleh, Bruce D.L. Fitt and Ahmed M.S. Kheir

Agricultural Water Management, 2025, vol. 317, issue C

Abstract: Egypt, a major wheat importer, grapples with significant food security concerns exacerbated by limited water resources and climate variability. This study investigates strategies to optimize wheat yield and water productivity across Egypt’s diverse agro-climatic zones through precise irrigation management and cultivar selection. Using the DSSAT CERES-Wheat model, calibrated with field data from experiments on three wheat cultivars (Sakha94, Shandweel1 and Sids1) under five irrigation treatments across four locations, we evaluated the impact of irrigation frequency and elevated CO₂ levels (390 ppm) on grain yield and water-use efficiency. Results show that frequent irrigation (50 % depletion) increases yield by up to 22 % compared to less frequent irrigation (90 % depletion), particularly for Sakha94, while reduced irrigation enhances water productivity based irrigation (WP_Irrigation), with Shandweel1 and Sids1 achieving 15–20 % higher WP under water-limited conditions. Elevated CO₂ contributes a modest yield increase of approximately 5 % and enhances WP, indicating potential adaptive benefits in future high-CO₂ scenarios. Sensitivity analysis revealed that moderate CO₂ enrichment (+420–440 ppm) combined with + 1°C to + 2°C increases yield and WP by 10–25 %, but higher temperatures (+3°C) shortened growth cycles and reduced benefits, particularly for heat-sensitive cultivars like Sakha94. Linear mixed model analysis further reveals distinct fixed and random effects, underscoring that strategic irrigation management can effectively balance yield maximization and water conservation. These findings highlight the necessity of location-specific irrigation and cultivar strategies to alleviate water scarcity. Future research should prioritize a multi-model ensemble approach to quantify uncertainties, integrate CMIP6 climate projections and explore multi-factor environmental impacts, supporting sustainable wheat production in water-limited regions.

Keywords: Deficit irrigation; DSSAT-CERES; CO₂ enrichment; Rising temperature; Resource-use efficiency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425003828
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:317:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425003828

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109668

Access Statistics for this article

Agricultural Water Management is currently edited by B.E. Clothier, W. Dierickx, J. Oster and D. Wichelns

More articles in Agricultural Water Management from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().