China's Black Soil Granary is approaching the climax phase of agricultural water security risk

Zehua Li, Yanfeng Wu, Guangxin Zhang, Yi J. Xu, Bingbo Ni, Boting Hu, Jingxuan Sun, Qingsong Zhang and Yexiang Yu

Agricultural Water Management, 2025, vol. 319, issue C

Abstract: Climate change poses a severe challenge to global agricultural water security, particularly in China’s major grain-producing region—the Black Soil Granary (BSG). However, there remains a notable gap in research regarding the evolution of agricultural water security risks in BSG. This study developed a comprehensive agricultural water security risk assessment framework that systematically incorporates hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components, with subsequent analysis of their spatiotemporal variations across grid, municipal, and geographical scales. The framework is applied to assess the spatiotemporal distribution and trend characteristics of agricultural water security risk in BSG during the baseline period (1999–2018) and under future scenarios (SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). The average risk of BSG during the baseline period is 0.061. Under the SSP2–4.5 scenario, the average risk of BSG is projected to peak in the near-term (2031–2050) at 0.068, then decrease to 0.061 in the mid-term (2051–2070), and further decline to 0.056 in the distant future (2071–2100). Under the SSP5–8.5 scenario, the average risk of BSG will peak in the near-term (0.067), then decrease in the mid-term (0.062), and rise again in the distant future (0.063). The Sanjiang Plain exhibits the most substantial growth in high-risk and severe-risk areas among BSG 's three major plains, with an increase of 43.68 % in both climate scenarios. This study emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of the water network in BSG to address the spatiotemporal variations in agricultural water security risks. The framework provides transferable insights for agricultural water security risk assessments in similar global agricultural ecological regions.

Keywords: Climate change; Food security; Agricultural water security risk; Drought and flood hazard; Black Soil Granary (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:319:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425004949

DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109780

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