Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico

Eric W. Harmsen, Norman L. Miller, Nicole J. Schlegel and J.E. Gonzalez

Agricultural Water Management, 2009, vol. 96, issue 7, 1085-1095

Abstract: The purpose of this study was to estimate precipitation (P), reference evapotranspiration (ETo), precipitation deficit (PD=P-ETo) and relative crop yield reduction (YR) for a generic crop under climate change conditions for three locations in Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayagüez, and Lajas. Reference evapotranspiration was estimated by the Penman-Monteith method. Precipitation and temperature data were statistically downscaled and evaluated using the DOE/NCAR PCM global circulation model projections for the B1 (low), A2 (mid-high) and A1fi (high) emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Relative crop yield reduction was estimated from a water stress factor, which is a function of soil moisture content. Average soil moisture content for the three locations was determined by means of a simple water balance approach. Results from the analysis indicate that the rainy season will become wetter and the dry season will become drier. The 20-year average September precipitation excess (i.e., PD>0) increased for all scenarios and locations from 121 to 321mm between 2000 and 2090. Conversely, the 20-year average February precipitation deficit (i.e., PD

Keywords: Climate; change; Evapotranspiration; Precipitation; Precipitation; deficit; Crop; yield; Downscaling; GCM (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:96:y:2009:i:7:p:1085-1095

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