Adaptive nowcasting of arrivals during health crises

Juan L. Eugenio-Martin, José M. Cazorla-Artiles, Adela Moreda and Juan M. Murguia

Annals of Tourism Research, 2023, vol. 101, issue C

Abstract: This paper develops a new methodology to nowcast the number of arrivals during health-related crises such as Covid-19. The methodology is adaptive, so that the relevance of different determinants varies over time by employing hurdles that work as ‘necessary travelling conditions’. It starts with a baseline series built upon a pre-Covid-19 trend. This series is adjusted by each hurdle. The first hurdle is the market closure; epidemiological models are applied to anticipate the dates of re-opening. The second hurdle deals with key travelling determinants such as the income effect. The third hurdle is the lack of confidence; this depends on the length of the recovery, and the expected path to follow.

Keywords: Nowcasting; Tourism demand; Arrivals; Covid-19; Crisis; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:anture:v:101:y:2023:i:c:s0160738323000828

DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2023.103609

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