The impact of war on tourism: A synthetic control and causal configuration analysis

Peng Hu and Derek D. Wang

Annals of Tourism Research, 2025, vol. 114, issue C

Abstract: This study scrutinizes the causal impacts of 115 armed conflicts on tourism demand in 16 countries using the synthetic control method. Results show differential impacts of conflicts across the countries. Nine countries experienced significant tourism disruptions, with an average loss of 45 % in tourist arrivals and 57 % in tourism receipts. Negative effects could persist for up to five years, or even longer, post-conflict. Conversely, seven countries showed no discernable tourism changes. We investigate the causal pathways behind the differential impacts of wars through fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis. We find that negative effects ensued under the condition of a sufficient number of attraction sites in the affected country coupled with either short distances to conflict zones or high conflict frequency and intensity.

Keywords: Armed conflicts; Tourism demand; Causal impact; Synthetic control; Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:anture:v:114:y:2025:i:c:s0160738325001203

DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2025.104014

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