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The combination of interval forecasts in tourism

Gang Li, Doris Chenguang Wu, Menglin Zhou and Anyu Liu

Annals of Tourism Research, 2019, vol. 75, issue C, 363-378

Abstract: Combination is an effective way to improve tourism forecasting accuracy. However, empirical evidence is limited to point forecasts. Given that interval forecasts can provide more comprehensive information, it is important to consider both point and interval forecasts for decision-making. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study is the first to examine if and how the combination can improve interval forecasting accuracy for tourism demand. Winkler scores are employed to measure interval forecasting performance. Empirical results show that combination improves the accuracy of tourism interval forecasting for different forecasting horizons. The findings provide government and industry practitioners with guidelines for producing accurate interval forecasts that benefit their policy-making for a wide array of applications in practice.

Keywords: Interval forecast; Combination forecasting; Econometric model; Winkler score; Tourism demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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