Economics at your fingertips  

The combination of interval forecasts in tourism

Gang Li, Doris Chenguang Wu, Menglin Zhou and Anyu Liu

Annals of Tourism Research, 2019, vol. 75, issue C, 363-378

Abstract: Combination is an effective way to improve tourism forecasting accuracy. However, empirical evidence is limited to point forecasts. Given that interval forecasts can provide more comprehensive information, it is important to consider both point and interval forecasts for decision-making. Using Hong Kong tourism demand as an empirical case, this study is the first to examine if and how the combination can improve interval forecasting accuracy for tourism demand. Winkler scores are employed to measure interval forecasting performance. Empirical results show that combination improves the accuracy of tourism interval forecasting for different forecasting horizons. The findings provide government and industry practitioners with guidelines for producing accurate interval forecasts that benefit their policy-making for a wide array of applications in practice.

Keywords: Interval forecast; Combination forecasting; Econometric model; Winkler score; Tourism demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Annals of Tourism Research is currently edited by John Tribe

More articles in Annals of Tourism Research from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2019-08-17
Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:75:y:2019:i:c:p:363-378