Simulating emerging coastal tourism vulnerabilities: an agent-based modelling approach

Jillian Student, Mark R. Kramer and Patrick Steinmann

Annals of Tourism Research, 2020, vol. 85, issue C

Abstract: Coastal tourism destinations face a range of climate-related changes. Prevailing challenges include understanding emerging changes and future uncertainties. A dynamic vulnerability approach is a promising way to analyse emerging socio-ecological vulnerabilities. This research presents an innovative coupling of the human-environment system in the agent-based model Coasting, and is applied to Curaçao's coastal tourism. We observe how operator numbers and environmental attractiveness, proxies for socio-ecological vulnerabilities, change over time. Global sensitivity analysis highlights the main interacting factors behind socio-ecological vulnerabilities. Scenario discovery explores the main drivers contributing to undesirable vulnerabilities. The model's findings provide key insights on which factors tourism destinations need to focus on to prevent socio-ecological vulnerabilities.

Keywords: Agent-based modelling (ABM); Dynamic vulnerability approach; Scenario discovery; Coastal tourism; Environmental change; Curaçao (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:anture:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s016073832030178x

DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.103034

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