 The double dividend of agricultural trade liberalization: Consistency between national food security and gains from tradeJournal of Asian Economics, 2016, vol. 43, issue C, 27-36 Abstract: National food security is one of the main justifications for opposition to agricultural trade liberalization in Japan. Opponents of liberalization argue that because food crop production is subject to high variability, over-reliance on imports would be risky. To assess the risks to Japan with and without trade liberalization, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of productivity shocks within a computable general equilibrium model for the four crops of greatest significance in the Japanese diet – rice, wheat, maize, and oilseed. Our results indicate that productivity shocks for rice and maize have a substantial effect on welfare. Liberalizing trade for these crops would both raise expected welfare and reduce welfare fluctuations. This double dividend was forecast even when we limited the simulation to cases of extremely poor crop yields in Japan's major source countries. Keywords: National food security; Agricultural trade liberalization; Productivity shocks; Computable general equilibrium analysis; Monte Carlo simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:asieco:v:43:y:2016:i:c:p:27-36 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2016.02.001 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Asian Economics is currently edited by C. Wiemer More articles in Journal of Asian Economics from Elsevier |
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