The implications of China’s slowdown for international trade
Patrick Blagrave and
Journal of Asian Economics, 2018, vol. 56, issue C, 36-47
We study cross-border spillovers from China’s recent growth slowdown onto partner-country exports. Our analysis uses a panel vector autoregressive model and novel measures of export-intensity adjusted final demand in China’s secondary and tertiary sectors. Impulse-response analysis suggests that spillovers are largest for shocks to China’s secondary sector: a one percentage point decline in demand growth from China’s secondary sector reduces average partner country export growth by almost 0.3% points on impact, and about half this amount on average over the first year; the same size shock to China’s tertiary sector has a much smaller effect. This suggests that spillovers to different trading partners will depend on their sectoral linkages with the Chinese economy. At the regional level, the analysis indicates that countries whose trade linkages with China are strongest—such as those in Asia—would be most affected.
Keywords: C33; C53; F14; F17; Panel Vector Autoregression; Trade Forecasting; International Trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:asieco:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:36-47
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Asian Economics is currently edited by C. Wiemer
More articles in Journal of Asian Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().