EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Forward-looking agents and inflation in an oil-producing country: Evidence from Iran

Amir Kia and Mahboubeh Jafari

Journal of Asian Economics, 2020, vol. 69, issue C

Abstract: A monetary model of inflation was estimated on the oil-producing country of Iran for the period 1984:1–2016:4. It was found that expectations are formed rationally and that agents are forward-looking and adjust their behavior based on changes in government expenditure. Consequently, it was found that higher fiscal variables result in lower price levels over the long run. A higher oil price leads to a lower price in the country but to a higher money supply and interest rate over the long run. Furthermore, a higher domestic interest rate results in a higher price level, while the reverse is true for a higher foreign interest rate. Another cause of inflation in Iran is the foreign price level. It was found that over the short run a higher growth of the real government expenditure results in a lower inflation rate in the country but a positive change in the foreign interest rate brings in a higher inflation rate.

Keywords: Forward-looking behavior; Inflation; Oil price; Superexogeneity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E41 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104900782030097X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:asieco:v:69:y:2020:i:c:s104900782030097x

DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2020.101217

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Asian Economics is currently edited by C. Wiemer

More articles in Journal of Asian Economics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Nithya Sathishkumar ().

 
Page updated 2021-03-09
Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:69:y:2020:i:c:s104900782030097x