Can stock message board sentiment predict future returns? Local versus nonlocal posts
Yen-Cheng Chang,
Ran Shao and
Na Wang
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 2022, vol. 34, issue C
Abstract:
Using textual analysis of stock message board posts, we find that investors’ sentiment expressed through messages can predict future one-day stock returns. For small stocks, message board sentiment can predict up to two-day cumulative future returns. This increased predictive power on small stocks is restricted mainly to local posts, which originate from the provinces in which stocks’ headquarters are located. Nonlocal posts exhibit a stronger trend-chasing sentiment than local posts. Furthermore, we find no evidence of the long-term predictive power of message board sentiment. Overall, our findings support the short-term information advantages of local investors.
Keywords: Stock message board; Investor sentiment; Local versus nonlocal posts; Return predictability; Small stocks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214635022000016
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:34:y:2022:i:c:s2214635022000016
DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100625
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance is currently edited by Michael Dowling and Jürgen Huber
More articles in Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().