Economic diplomacy: The “one–China policy” effect on trade

Laurent Didier

China Economic Review, 2018, vol. 48, issue C, 223-243

Abstract: Chinese foreign policy is mainly characterized by the Beijing consensus and the one-China principle in international relations. More precisely, the situation faced by Taiwan is a “core interest” in China's economic diplomacy strategy. We investigate whether the “one-China policy” (OCP) has had visible effects on bilateral trade flows. In other words, does the compliance of diplomatic commitments with China undermine Taiwanese trade and enhance China's trade position? Using a structural gravity model based on worldwide panel data for the period 1948–2012, we approximate the OCP through two dummy variables: the vote by countries of the UN resolution about China's recognition in 1971 and the existence of diplomatic ties with China. The first component of the OCP drastically increased on average in trade flows with China regardless of the vote of trading partners concerning this UN resolution as well as that for Taiwan. On average, results suggest that diplomatic relations with China improve bilateral trade flows for China, but a trade-deteriorating effect appears for Taiwan with certain ex-colonies. We also find that the effects of these economic diplomacy components confirm previous results reported for the period studied.

Keywords: Economic diplomacy; Trade; China; Taiwan; Gravity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F02 F14 F59 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Working Paper: Economic diplomacy: The “one–China policy” effect on trade (2016)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chieco:v:48:y:2018:i:c:p:223-243

DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2016.11.003

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