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Agricultural production and food consumption in China: A long-term projection

Yu Sheng and Ligang Song ()

China Economic Review, 2019, vol. 53, issue C, 15-29

Abstract: This paper uses a multi-country and multi-product partial equilibrium model to forecast food supply and demand in China and its impact on food trade in 2050. The model endogenises shifting consumption preferences due to China's demographic changes and real incomes growth caused by ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation. We show that total food demand in China is to increase by 33% by 2050 and its structure will shift towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. While improved productivity growth will enable domestic production to rise, imports are still likely to play an important role in reducing the “quality” gap in future Chinese food demand.

Keywords: Partial equilibrium model; Long-term food demand; China agrifood production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E17 N55 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Working Paper: Agricultural Production and Food Consumption in China: A Long-term Projection (2017) Downloads
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DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2018.08.006

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China Economic Review is currently edited by B.M. Fleisher, K. X. D. Huang, M.E. Lovely, Y. Wen, X. Zhang and X. Zhu

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