Effective labor supply and growth outlook in China

Jing Cao, Mun Ho, Wenhao Hu and Dale Jorgenson

China Economic Review, 2020, vol. 61, issue C

Abstract: The falling projections of working-age population in China has led to predictions of much slower economic growth. We consider three mechanisms that could contribute to higher effective labor supply growth: further improvement in educational attainment due to cohort replacement and rising college enrollment; improvement in aggregate labor quality due to urbanization; and higher labor force participation due to later retirement. We find that these factors result in a projected growth rate of effective labor input of 0.40% for 2015−2030 compared to −0.60% for working age population. As a result, the projected growth rate of GDP will be 5.80% for 2015–2030 compared to 5.23% if these factors are ignored.

Keywords: Effective labor supply; GDP growth; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chieco:v:61:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x19301592

DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101398

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