Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China
Yanzhen Liu and
China Economic Review, 2020, vol. 64, issue C
In this paper, we investigate how the systemic risk affects macroeconomic activity in China and examines the forecasting power of 12 different measures of systemic risk. Quantile regression is employed to capture the nonlinear relationship between the systemic risk and the distribution of future macroeconomic shocks. We find that the systemic risk skews the distribution of future shocks, which cannot be identified in the central tendency analysis within the traditional linear regression. In particular, when the systemic risk builds up, the risk of severe economic downturns increases while the risk of moderate economic downturns barely changes. When comparing the forecasting power of different systemic risk measures, we use both a fixed rolling window and a time-varying method to make the result robust. We find that, of the 12 widely used measures, 8 demonstrate significant predictability for subsequent shocks to economic growth in China and can thus serve as early warning signals.
Keywords: Systemic risk; Economic growth; Forecast; Quantile regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 E37 G10 G20 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chieco:v:64:y:2020:i:c:s1043951x20301541
Access Statistics for this article
China Economic Review is currently edited by B.M. Fleisher, K. X. D. Huang, M.E. Lovely, Y. Wen, X. Zhang and X. Zhu
More articles in China Economic Review from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().