Statistical modeling of Dengue transmission dynamics with environmental factors

Lengyang Wang and Mingke Zhang

Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2025, vol. 203, issue C

Abstract: Dengue fever is one of the most common mosquito-borne infectious diseases in tropical regions. Understanding the dynamics of dengue transmission can help provide timely early warnings, thereby reducing mortality. However, previous studies have failed to simulate faithfully dengue dynamics and answer questions pertinent to outbreaks. By incorporating environmental factors into a time-series-susceptible-infectious-recovered (TSIR) model, a new substantive model, to analyze their impact on transmission, is proposed. The newly proposed environmental-time-series-susceptible-infectious-recovered (ETSIR) model can highlight statistically their significance on dengue transmission, thus providing deeper insight into the transmission and addressing several epidemiological puzzles.

Keywords: Multiple-step-ahead estimation; Environmental factors; SIR model; Infectious diseases; Transmission dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:csdana:v:203:y:2025:i:c:s0167947324001646

DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2024.108080

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