The new era of unconditional convergence

Dev Patel, Justin Sandefur and Arvind Subramanian

Journal of Development Economics, 2021, vol. 152, issue C

Abstract: The central fact that has motivated the empirics of economic growth—namely unconditional divergence—is no longer true and has not been so for decades. Across a range of data sources, poorer countries have in fact been catching up with richer ones, albeit slowly, since the mid-1990s. This new era of convergence does not stem primarily from growth moderation in the rich world but rather from accelerating growth in the developing world, which has simultaneously become remarkably less volatile and more persistent. Debates about a “middle-income trap” also appear anachronistic: middle-income countries have exhibited higher growth rates than all others since the mid-1980s.

Keywords: Growth; Convergence; Middle-income trap; Persistence; Solow model; Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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Working Paper: The New Era of Unconditional Convergence (2021)
Working Paper: The New Era of Unconditional Convergence (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:deveco:v:152:y:2021:i:c:s030438782100064x

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102687

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