Weapons and war: The effect of arms transfers on internal conflict

Quentin Gallea

Journal of Development Economics, 2023, vol. 160, issue C

Abstract: Despite the fact that weapons are necessary for conflicts, it remains unclear if weapons availability itself causes conflict. I use historical links between arms exporters and importers, and shocks to conflict engagement of the exporters, to instrument the volume of arms imports. The 2SLS estimates reveal that arms imports in Africa increase the likelihood of internal conflict, in particular one-sided violence, the number of fighter and civilian deaths, as well as the number of refugees fleeing the country. The results suggest that arms exporters have the ability to influence violence with their trade. Even if stopping exports might only postpone violence until more weapons are found, the momentary reduced violence could open a window to facilitate negotiations for a peaceful resolution.

Keywords: Instrumental variables (IV) estimation; Internal conflict; Migration; Rebellion; Arms imports (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C26 D74 F22 H56 O10 O19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:deveco:v:160:y:2023:i:c:s0304387822001432

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103001

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