Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China

Xiaomeng Cui and Zheng Zhong

Journal of Development Economics, 2024, vol. 167, issue C

Abstract: Climate change is expected to reduce crop yields, but knowledge on how it affects agricultural land use is still limited. This paper empirically investigates the induced cropland adjustments in responding to long-run climate change in China. Based on county-level data over several decades, we employ a moving-average specification that exploits within-county variation in local climate normals. We show that cropland expands with rising temperature (precipitation) in cold (dry) areas, while the effect is reversed in hot (humid) areas. The results are consistent with the “long-difference” estimates and robust to a host of different specifications. Besides, local crop mix also evolves with the changing climate. However, accounting for the crop-mix adjustments, climate change by the mid-century is still predicted to significantly lower the national calorie provision through induced cropland adjustments, and an average yield growth of 17.6% (21.2%) would be required to offset the associated loss under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5).

Keywords: Climate change; Cropland; Food security; Crop mix; Adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q12 Q51 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:deveco:v:167:y:2024:i:c:s0304387823002018

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2023.103245

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