Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas

Luisito Bertinelli, Rana Cömertpay and Jean-François Maystadt

Journal of Development Economics, 2025, vol. 172, issue C

Abstract: This study explores how forced migration affects ethnic diversity and conflict in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2005 to 2016. Using UNHCR data on refugee camp locations, we predict changes in local ethnic diversity. By integrating Afrobarometer and Ethnic Power Relations-Ethnicity of Refugees datasets, we analyse the link between refugee-induced diversity and conflict occurrence. Findings indicate that refugee-induced polarization increases the risk of local violence, while fractionalization has a mitigating effect. Notably, the number of refugees does not impact the likelihood of conflict; instead, alterations in ethnic diversity, especially polarization, emerge as the primary driver of conflict.

Keywords: Refugees; Diversity; Conflict; Migration; Africa (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 F22 J15 O15 Q34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:deveco:v:172:y:2025:i:c:s0304387824001421

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103393

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