The uneven reach of the state: A novel approach to mapping local state presence

Gustav Agneman, Christoffer Cappelen, Kasper Brandt and David Sjöberg

Journal of Development Economics, 2025, vol. 174, issue C

Abstract: The ability of states to exercise authority often varies considerably within their borders, yet we lack reliable empirical measures of the uneven reach of states. In this paper, we develop a methodology to predict state presence at granular spatial resolutions and demonstrate the approach using data from Sub-Saharan Africa. We link a range of indicators of state presence, e.g., infrastructural data, with geolocated survey data of residents’ experiences with subnational governance. Then, we employ a machine learning algorithm that learns how the input variables relate to experienced state presence and extrapolates the predictions to all of Sub-Saharan Africa. We validate the predicted measure through a range of tests and document how local state presence influences development outcomes.

Keywords: State presence; Machine learning; Conflict (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H11 O10 R50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:deveco:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0304387825000045

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103453

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