Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador

Kaleb Abreha, Trinity Johnson and Raymond Robertson

Journal of Development Economics, 2025, vol. 174, issue C

Abstract: We estimate the impact of President Bukele's 2022 crime crackdown on migrant encounters at the U.S. border. El Salvador is a key source of migration through the Southern U.S. border and had high crime rates. In March 2022, a surge in violence led to a state of exception and mass arrest of suspected gang affiliates, which raised human rights concerns and significantly reduced homicides. Applying difference-in-differences and synthetic cohort methods, we find an 45%–67% decline in U.S. border encounters with Salvadorans relative to others.

Keywords: Migration; Crime and violence; Poverty; El Salvador; United States (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J61 K42 O15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:deveco:v:174:y:2025:i:c:s0304387825000070

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456

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