The impact of violence on the dynamics of migration: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution

David Escamilla-Guerrero, Edward Kosack and Zachary Ward

Journal of Development Economics, 2025, vol. 176, issue C

Abstract: Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.

Keywords: Migration; Refugees; Mexican Revolution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 N31 N32 N36 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:deveco:v:176:y:2025:i:c:s0304387825000665

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103515

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