Police autonomy, data-driven strategies, and violence: Evidence from Brazil’s policing reform

Rafael Parfitt, Bruno Pantaleão and Alberto Kopittke

Journal of Development Economics, 2026, vol. 178, issue C

Abstract: We evaluate the impact of a results-based management program in Brazil designed to improve police service delivery through more efficient resource allocation, data-driven personnel deployment, and targeted interventions in high-violence areas. Exploiting the staggered implementation of the program across 2,355 municipalities in nine Brazilian states over two decades, we estimate its causal effect on homicide rates using a staggered difference-in-differences approach. We find that the reform substantially reduced homicide rates following implementation. The effects are particularly pronounced among vulnerable subgroups, such as Black individuals and those with low education levels. Additionally, we document larger reductions in homicides in municipalities with higher baseline levels of violence, suggesting that results-based police management is especially effective in the most violent areas.

Keywords: Public security reform; Results-based management; Violence; Brazil (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D73 H11 I18 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:deveco:v:178:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825001543

DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103603

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