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Measuring network systemic risk contributions: A leave-one-out approach

Sullivan Hué, Yannick Lucotte () and Sessi Tokpavi ()

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2019, vol. 100, issue C, 86-114

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to propose a new network measure of systemic risk contributions that combines the pair-wise Granger causality approach with the leave-one-out concept. This measure is based on a conditional Granger causality test and consists of measuring how far the proportion of statistically significant connections in the system breaks down when a given financial institution is excluded. We analyse the performance of our measure of systemic risk by considering a sample of the largest banks worldwide over the 2003–2018 period. We obtain three important results. First, we show that our measure is able to identify a large number of banks classified as global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) by the Financial Stability Board (FSB). Second, we find that our measure is a robust and statistically significant early-warning indicator of downside returns during the last financial crisis. Finally, we investigate the potential determinants of our measure of systemic risk and find similar results to the existing literature. In particular, our empirical results suggest that the size and the business model of banks are significant drivers of systemic risk.

Keywords: Systemic risk; Interconnectedness; Financial networks; Granger-causality; Spurious causalities; Leave-one-out (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G29 C51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is currently edited by J. Bullard, C. Chiarella, H. Dawid, C. H. Hommes, P. Klein and C. Otrok

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