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Inflation and demography through time

John Juselius and Elod Takats

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2021, vol. 128, issue C

Abstract: Demography accounts for a large share of low frequency inflation variation in 22 countries from 1870 to 2016. The dependent population (young and old) is associated with higher, and the working age population with lower inflation. The relationship is robust across different sub-samples and specifications, including dynamic Phillips curve settings, suggesting that it is not spurious. The observed pattern is broadly consistent with delayed monetary policy responses to demography-induced changes in the natural interest rate.

Keywords: Demography; Inflation; Phillips curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E52 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:128:y:2021:i:c:s0165188921000713

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104136

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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is currently edited by J. Bullard, C. Chiarella, H. Dawid, C. H. Hommes, P. Klein and C. Otrok

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