Media-expressed tone, option characteristics, and stock return predictability

Cathy Yi-Hsuan Chen, Matthias Fengler, Wolfgang Härdle and Yanchu Liu

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2022, vol. 134, issue C

Abstract: We investigate the informational content of a huge assortment of NASDAQ articles about a joint cross-section of S&P 500 stock return data and related single-stock option data. Splitting the articles into a trading-time and an overnight archive, we distill tone from each of them. We show that media-expressed tone is informative about option markets and that both option data and tone predict stock returns. The predictive power of option variables is robust to partialling out tone, but varies depending on whether tone is from the overnight or the trading-time archive. A potential reason is that the archives differ in terms of their thematic content. Overall, we conclude that the informational content of option data for predicting single-stock returns extends beyond the information summarized in tone and traditional market factors.

Keywords: Media-expressed tone; Option markets; Stock return predictability; Textual analysis; Topic model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G12 G14 G41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Working Paper: Media-expressed tone, Option Characteristics, and Stock Return Predictability (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:134:y:2022:i:c:s0165188921002256

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104290

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