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Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model

Sergey Slobodyan () and Raf Wouters ()

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2012, vol. 36, issue 1, 26-46

Abstract: We evaluate the empirical relevance of learning by private agents in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. We replace the standard rational expectations assumption in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model by a constant-gain learning mechanism. If agents know the correct structure of the model and only learn about the parameters, both expectation mechanisms produce very similar results, and only the transition dynamics that are generated by specific initial beliefs seem to improve the fit. If, instead, agents use only a reduced information set in forming the perceived law of motion, the implied model dynamics change and, depending on the specification of the initial beliefs, the marginal likelihood of the model can improve significantly. These best-fitting models add additional persistence to the dynamics and this reduces the gap between the IRFs of the DSGE model and the more data-driven DSGE-VAR model. However, the learning dynamics do not systematically alter the estimated structural parameters related to the nominal and real frictions in the DSGE model.

Keywords: Constant-gain adaptive learning; Medium-scale DSGE model; DSGE-VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 D84 E30 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Working Paper: Learning in an Estimated Medium-Scale DSGE Model (2009) Downloads
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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is currently edited by J. Bullard, C. Chiarella, H. Dawid, C. H. Hommes, P. Klein and C. Otrok

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