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Living in an imaginary world that looks real

Maciej Dudek

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2014, vol. 41, issue C, 209-223

Abstract: In the paper we show – using standard approaches, general equilibrium modeling and the assumption of complete rationality – that the macroeconomic environment is endogenous and is indeterminate. Specifically, it is argued – without resorting to sunspot type arguments – that microeconomic fundamentals do not suffice to characterize the economy at the macro level. In particular, we show how perceptions of rational agents of the workings of the economy (a) shape the environment, (b) affect the environment sufficiently to ensure that rational economic agents find the observed environment consistent with their beliefs even though it is not. As a by-product, we illustrate that endogenous macro uncertainty can arise as an outcome if rational economic agents whose expectations are anchored on endogenous variables expect them to arise. Finally, we show that systematic errors can persist indefinitely under rationality.

Keywords: Endogenous environment; Imaginary parameters; Real parameters; Beliefs consistency; Macro-uncertainty; Permanent errors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D83 D84 D91 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:209-223

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.01.021

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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is currently edited by J. Bullard, C. Chiarella, H. Dawid, C. H. Hommes, P. Klein and C. Otrok

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