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Why is equity order flow so persistent?

Bence Tóth, Imon Palit, Fabrizio Lillo and J. Farmer

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2015, vol. 51, issue C, 218-239

Abstract: Order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order signs (to buy or sell) are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens of thousands of orders, corresponding to many days. Two possible explanations are herding, corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different investors, or order splitting, corresponding to positive autocorrelation in the behavior of single investors. We investigate this using order flow data from the London Stock Exchange for which we have membership identifiers. By formulating models for herding and order splitting, as well as models for brokerage choice, we are able to overcome the distortion introduced by brokerage. On timescales of less than a few hours the persistence of order flow is overwhelmingly due to splitting rather than herding. We also study the properties of brokerage order flow and show that it is remarkably consistent both cross-sectionally and longitudinally.

Keywords: Market microstructure; Order flow; Herding; Order splitting; Price impact; Behavioral finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C62 D44 D61 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (43)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:218-239

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.10.007

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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is currently edited by J. Bullard, C. Chiarella, H. Dawid, C. H. Hommes, P. Klein and C. Otrok

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