The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel

Aaron Popp and Fang Zhang ()

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2016, vol. 69, issue C, 319-349

Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks with an emphasis on the interaction between elevated uncertainty and credit market conditions when the economy is in different regimes (recessions vs. non-recessions). We use a smooth-transition factor-augmented vector autoregression (ST-FAVAR) and a large monthly panel of U.S. macroeconomic and financial indicators in our estimation. Our findings are twofold. First, while an unanticipated increase in uncertainty has adverse effects on the real economy and financial markets, the effects are quantitatively larger during recessions. Second, the financial channel is important in the transmission of uncertainty shocks, with a greater role during recessions and in the short run.

Keywords: Uncertainty shocks; Credit spread; Recessions; Smooth-transition vector autoregression; Dynamic factor analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 E32 E37 E44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (50)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188916300987
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:69:y:2016:i:c:p:319-349

DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2016.05.021

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is currently edited by J. Bullard, C. Chiarella, H. Dawid, C. H. Hommes, P. Klein and C. Otrok

More articles in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().