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Temperature shocks and welfare costs

Michael Donadelli, Marcus Jüppner (), M. Riedel and Christian Schlag ()

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2017, vol. 82, issue C, 331-355

Abstract: This paper examines the welfare implications of rising temperatures. Using a standard VAR, we empirically show that a temperature shock has a sizable, negative and statistically significant impact on TFP, output, and labor productivity. We rationalize these findings within a production economy featuring long-run temperature risk. In the model, macro-aggregates drop in response to a temperature shock, consistent with the novel evidence in the data. Such adverse effects are long-lasting. Over a 50-year horizon, a one-standard deviation temperature shock lowers both cumulative output and labor productivity growth by 1.4 percentage points. Based on the model, we also show that temperature risk is associated with non-negligible welfare costs which amount to 18.4% of the agent’s lifetime utility and grow exponentially with the size of the impact of temperature on TFP. Finally, we show that faster adaptation to temperature shocks results in lower welfare costs. These welfare benefits become substantially higher in the presence of permanent improvements in the speed of adaptation.

Keywords: Temperature shocks; Long-run growth; Asset prices; Welfare costs; Adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E30 G12 Q0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control is currently edited by J. Bullard, C. Chiarella, H. Dawid, C. H. Hommes, P. Klein and C. Otrok

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