The New Economy and the Dollar Puzzle

Neil Dias Karunaratne
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Neil Dias Karunaratne: School of Economics, The University of Queensland, Brisbane (Australia)

Economic Analysis and Policy, 2006, vol. 36, issue 1-2, 25-43

Abstract: The revolutionary changes in information technology (IT), globalisation and financial innovation overturned the Solow productivity paradox and spawned a New Economy (NE) in Australia in late 1990s. Both growth accounting estimates and the use of information superhighway rank Australia next to USA as a NE. Australia is an avid user but not a producer of IT that propes the NE. The debate on the need for a new paradigm for the new economy on the grounds that key mechanisms of the old paradigm have become obsolete is reviewed. The breakdown of the short-run Phillips curve trade-off and the redundancy of the long-run speed limits top growth are examined and dismissed as poppycock on both theoretical and empirical grounds. The IT technology, because it is subject to severe diminishing returns and problems of information overload, fails to rank with the great inventions of the past and will not be a harbinger of the Third Industrial Revolution. Nonetheless. on the basis of the "delay hypothesis" the dismissal of the case for a new paradigm for the NE my be premature at this stage. The paper also examines the puzzling nosedive of the dollar during the first half of the year 2001. This occurred despite the strong macroeconomic fundamentals and the emergent NE. The paper concludes by commenting on the policy reaction function for a small open NE committed to inflammation targeting.

Keywords: Growth; Productivity; Technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O30 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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