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Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers

Fabrizio Carmignani () and Parvinder Kler ()

Economic Analysis and Policy, 2016, vol. 49, issue C, 7-16

Abstract: We apply panel estimation methods to test how the incidence of war in neighbourhood countries affects the incidence of war in the domestic country. This study finds positive and significant evidence of “spatial conflict spillover”: higher incidence in the neighbourhood increases domestic country involvement in war. We also provide some new evidence on other correlates of war. Particularly interesting are the results concerning the effect of democracy. An increase in the level of democracy increases the incidence of interstate war and reduces the incidence of civil war. However, this latter effect kicks in only past a certain initial level of democracy.

Keywords: Civil war; Interstate war; Neighbourhood effect; Spillover; Panel models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D74 C23 N40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Working Paper: Surrounded by wars: Quantifying the role of spatial conflict spillovers (2013) Downloads
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DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2015.11.016

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