Persistence in sovereign debt during the past two centuries: Evidence for the US and the largest European economies

Miguel A. Martin-Valmayor, Nieves Carmona-González, María-Pilar Sánchez-Martín and Luis Gil-Alana

Economic Analysis and Policy, 2024, vol. 83, issue C, 390-403

Abstract: This paper analyzes the persistence of the sovereign debt / GDP and sovereign debt / GDP per capita series for the five largest European economies and the US using fractional integration. We use historical data starting in 1800 for the US and the UK, in 1861 for Italy and in 1880 for Germany, France and Spain. The results indicate high degrees of persistence of debt-to-GDP and debt per capita ratios with clear evidence of no mean reversion in both debt indicators. We also find evidence of correlation with the primary deficit, supporting the idea that one of the causes of this debt persistence is precisely the primary deficit persistence. Empirical results support the need for a better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance debt control in the countries under examination.

Keywords: GDP; Income level; Mean reversion; Fractional integration; Persistence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:83:y:2024:i:c:p:390-403

DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.06.012

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