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The effects of macroprudential policies on house prices: Evidence from non-ordinary house purchasing policy using China real transaction data

Sun LinLin, Zhang Yawen and Xue Xiaojun

Economic Analysis and Policy, 2024, vol. 84, issue C, 2086-2101

Abstract: This paper contributes to the international policy debate on the effect of macroprudential policy on housing prices. Our identification relies on the fact that ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing in Beijing face different loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions and transaction tax rates. This paper uses regression discontinuity (RD) design to test whether the differentiated regulation of ordinary housing and non-ordinary housing caused a discontinuous change in housing prices with house-level transaction data. We find that housing prices have a significant discontinuous decline at the cutoff point caused by macroprudential policy, which we take 140 m2 s since it is the identification standard of non-ordinary housing. Further, we carry out RD-DID analysis to investigate the influence of loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions on housing prices. We find that around 2 % decline in house prices is caused by credit policy.

Keywords: Macroprudential policy; housing prices; ordinary housing; non-ordinary housing; loan-to-value (ltv) restrictions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:84:y:2024:i:c:p:2086-2101

DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.10.057

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