How does economic growth targets influence vegetation dynamics? Evidence from China

Siqi Yan, Jian Wang and Qun Wu

Economic Analysis and Policy, 2025, vol. 86, issue C, 1476-1491

Abstract: Setting economic growth targets (EGTs) is an essential tool for governments worldwide to implement macroeconomic management, and its significant environmental impacts is commonly accepted. However, research on EGTs’ influence on vegetation dynamics remains limited. Using fixed effects modeling and instrumental variable techniques, this study analyzes EGTs’ impact on vegetation conditions and underlying mechanisms in 286 Chinese cities (2011–2022). Fiscal pressure-dependent nonlinearities in the effect of EGTs on vegetation status is examined through panel threshold modeling. Results show that EGTs negatively affects vegetation status. EGTs’ adverse impact upon vegetation conditions is stronger in resource-based or secondary industry-led cities. Mechanism analysis reveals that EGTs unfavorably influences vegetation status through fostering urban expansion and driving local governments to lessen intensity of environmental regulation. Threshold effect analysis indicates that as local fiscal pressure increases, disadvantageous impact of EGTs on vegetation conditions tends to be more intense. This study provides important theoretical insights into institutional determinants of vegetation dynamics, and has significant policy implications for optimizing management of EGTs and promoting vegetation conservation.

Keywords: Economic growth targets; Vegetation dynamics; Urban expansion; Environmental regulation; Nonlinear effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592625001766
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:86:y:2025:i:c:p:1476-1491

DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2025.05.010

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Analysis and Policy is currently edited by Clevo Wilson

More articles in Economic Analysis and Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().