Decision-making in hard times: What is a recession, why do we care and how do we know when we are in one?

Kevin Lee () and Kalvinder Shields

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2011, vol. 22, issue 1, 43-60

Abstract: Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals' economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best represented through the calculation of the nowcast of recession event probabilities. A variety of such probabilities are produced using a real-time data set for the US for the period, focusing on the likelihood of various recessionary events through 1986q1-2008q4 and on prospects beyond the end of the sample.

Keywords: Recession; Probability; forecasts; Real; time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Decision Making in hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and How Do We Know When We Are in One? (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:22:y:2011:i:1:p:43-60

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