Modelling and forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall for GCC stock markets: Do long memory, structural breaks, asymmetry, and fat-tails matter?
Chaker Aloui and
Hela ben Hamida
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2014, vol. 29, issue C, 349-380
Abstract:
This paper addresses the question whether dual long memory (LM), asymmetry and structural breaks in stock market returns matter when forecasting the value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) for short and long trading positions. We answer this question for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets. Empirically, we test the occurrence of structural breaks in the GCC return data using the Inclan and Tiao (1994)’s algorithm and we check the relevance of LM using Shimotsu (2006) procedure before estimating the ARFIMA-FIGARCH and ARFIMA-FIAPARCH models with different innovations’ distributions and computing VaR and ES. Our results show that all the GCC market's volatilities exhibit significant structural breaks matching mainly with the 2008–2009 global financial crises and the Arab spring. Also, they are governed by LM process either in the mean or in the conditional variance which cannot be due to the occurrence of structural breaks. Furthermore, the forecasting ability analysis shows that the FIAPARCH model under skewed Student-t distribution turn out to improve substantially the VaR and the ES forecasts.
Keywords: Value-at-risk; Expected shortfall; Long memory; Structural breaks; GARCH-type models; Stock markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940814000667
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:349-380
DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2014.06.006
Access Statistics for this article
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance is currently edited by Hamid Beladi
More articles in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().