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What determines the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates?

Lu Yang (), Xiao Jing Cai and Shigeyuki Hamori ()

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2018, vol. 44, issue C, 140-152

Abstract: In this study, we obtain the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates by employing the dynamic conditional correlation-mixed data sampling (DCC-MIDAS) model. We then identify the factors that influence the long-term correlation using panel data analysis. We find that the long-run correlations between oil prices and exchange rates are negative for all oil-exchange rate markets except Japan. We also find that both inflation and term spread have negative effects, while the risk-free interest rate has a positive effect on the long-term correlation between oil prices and exchange rates. Importantly, the empirical results show that an increase in inflation will significantly damage the real value of the currency itself.

Keywords: Oil price; Exchange rate; GARCH-MIDAS; DCC-MIDAS (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F3 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:140-152

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