Economics at your fingertips  

Can investors attention on oil markets predict stock returns?

Libo Yin and Jiabao Feng

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019, vol. 48, issue C, 786-800

Abstract: This paper sets out to explore the predictability of the U.S. equity risk premium directly based on investor attention to oil. We find that the predictive power of oil attention exhibits statistical and economic significance within different models in both in-sample and out-of-sample tests. Meanwhile, oil attention reveals considerable and robust economic value for asset allocation in the sense of positive utility gains. Furthermore, supportive evidence that oil attention is closely linked to stock market volatility endues it with a macroeconomic meaning, serving as an explanation for its predictive power. Overall, investor attention to oil does have a direct predictive power to forecast the U.S. stock excess returns.

Keywords: Stock return predictability; Oil attention; Out-of-sample forecast; Economic value (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance is currently edited by Hamid Beladi

More articles in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

Page updated 2019-08-10
Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:48:y:2019:i:c:p:786-800